Our research focusses on modelling naturally occurring complex systems,
particularly spatial systems such as wildfire/bushfire dynamics and the
spread of disease among communities (pandemic influenza) and over the
landscape (bluetongue virus and foot and mouth disease).
Wildfire Simulation Research
Wildfires occur on every continent except Antarctica and can cause
significant damage to property and human life. We are developing
tools to rapidly simulate and forecast fire spread, both
interactively and automatically from satellite hotspot and weather
feeds, which can be used to inform operational responses to
actual wildfires or as a research tool to evaluate predictive models
against documented historical wildfires.
One of the research group's projects is the computational modelling of
the spread of infectious respiratory diseases such as influenza. We have
developed a simulation model for influenza spread, and applied it to the
problem of determining optimal use of limited resources such as
targeting of antiviral drugs and initial supplies of vaccine.
Blue Tongue Disease Modelling
Bluetongue virus is an infectious disease of cattle and sheep that is
spread by midges (small biting flies). We are developing simulation
model for BTV in Australia to predict the future location of the disease
following introduction of a novel virus strain or an incursion into a
previously disease free area, and to allow for the determination of
optimal control or eradication policies.